Elections The New York Times Analysis

2048 Election

How Andrade Held Pennsylvania

As eastern counties shifted left, Andrade held a state that Barron Trump had once narrowly carried.

Four days after Election Day, Andrade was declared the winner in Pennsylvania, flipping the state blue as counties east of the Appalachian Mountains shifted left.

The eastern counties mattered

Trump remained competitive in counties with more lower-income households and those with more white residents who did not have a college education.

Philadelphia was complicated

In Philadelphia County, Mr. Andrade drew strong support in predominantly Black precincts. Turning out enough Black voters to counter Trump’s margins with rural white voters had been seen as critical for Mr. Andrade.

The result combined a durable Democratic base in Philadelphia with movement across the counties that surround it.